We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.

New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.

We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.

Success makes you less intimidated by things.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen

Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.

On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.

Will you stay in Germany?''No. Somewhere different.''Like where?''Somewhere there was no war. Ireland maybe.

The most reliable method for acquiring wealth is through giving.

I've never had a cold Christmas, as I always spend it back home in Australia.

A good horse makes short miles.

The difference between helping and selling is just two letters. But those two letters are critically important to the success of business today.

One thing you can never underestimate is the power of water.

As a boxer I took the liberty of using not only my fists, but also my head.

And since I just turned 32, I'm thinking about getting married, having a family, and that's very difficult to do on the road as a correspondent.

Never explain, never complain.

I don't read economic forecasts. I don't read the funny papers.